Bitcoin's (BTC) xc% year-to-date gain was largely fueled past the United States Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) recent commutation-traded fund (ETF) approval and in the first 48-hours of listing, ProShares' Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) was able to amass $1.ane billion in assets under management.

On November. 1, the U.S. Treasury released its stablecoins report, which basically urged Congress to regulate the industry. In short, the working group expects regime agencies to require stablecoin issuers to meet the same standards as insured depository institutions.

Although the consequences of a potential stablecoin regulation for cryptocurrency markets remain unknown, stablecoins are vital for exchanges, market place makers and retail investors when seeking protection. Despite this, investors still must account for the possibility that stablecoin issuers will react by simply moving their operations outside U.S. jurisdiction.

With less than 12 hours ahead of Friday'due south $1.15 billion options death, Bitcoin trades in a descending channel and faces resistance at the $62,000 to $63,000 level.

Bitcoin toll on Coinbase in USD. Source: TradingView

The ETF expectation could have been the reason for the bulls' excessive optimism, which tin be seen in the $68,000 and higher bets for the Nov. 5 expiry. Even with having $740 million stacked in phone call (buy) options, bulls might take missed an opportunity to score some relevant profits.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Nov. 5. Source: Bybt

At first sight, the 11,215 BTC call (buy) options boss the weekly expiry by 82% compared to the vi,146 BTC put (sell) instruments. Still, the 1.82 phone call-to-put ratio is deceptive because some of those prices now seem far-fetched.

For instance, if Bitcoin's cost remains to a higher place $60,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Nov. 5, only $70 million out of the $405 million worth of put (sell) options will be available at the decease. There is no value in having the right to sell Bitcoin at $55,000 if it's trading in a higher place that toll.

Bears need sub-$62,000 to balance the scales

Below are the iv most likely scenarios for the $1.15 billion Nov. 5 expiry. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry price, the quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts becoming active varies:

  • Between $58,000 and $60,000: 270 calls vs. ane,800 puts. The net result favors put (bear) instruments by $90 one thousand thousand.
  • Between $60,000 and $62,000: 630 calls vs. 350 puts. The cyberspace consequence favors put (comport) instruments by $15 million.
  • Between $62,000 and $64,000: 1,560 calls vs. 370 puts. The net outcome is $75 one thousand thousand favoring the call (balderdash) instruments.
  • To a higher place $64,000: 2,890 calls vs. 100 puts. The net result is complete dominance, with bulls profiting $175 one thousand thousand.

This rough estimate considers telephone call (buy) options used in bullish strategies and put (sell) options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, a trader could accept sold a put pick, finer gaining a positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific toll. Unfortunately, in that location'south no like shooting fish in a barrel way to judge this effect.

Related: Bitcoin on-chain metric suggests 2022-style bull run will continue

Bulls accept a clear shot at securing a $175 meg profit

Currently, Bitcoin cost oscillates near $62,000 and there are incentives in place for bulls to push BTC upward 3.5% to $64,000 alee of Friday's death. In that case, their estimated profits should increase by $100 million.

On the other hand, because Bitcoin's 39% rally in October, bears would be more than pleased to take a $15 1000000 loss if the BTC decease price remains below $62,000.

Avoiding a $175 million profit from bulls is the bears' best-case scenario right now considering, during balderdash runs, the amount of try a seller needs to impact the price is immense and usually ineffective.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and exercise non necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading motility involves risk. Yous should conduct your ain inquiry when making a decision.